The World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, has disclosed that about 139 million citizens are now living in poverty. This figure corresponds to about 60% of Nigeria’s estimated population of 238million. He made this disclosure on Wednesday in Abuja during the launch of the October 2025 Nigeria Development Update titled, “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home.
The Nigeria Development Update (NDU) is the World Bank’s biannual flagship report that reviews economic trends, policy outcomes, and key challenges facing Nigeria.
The new figure indicates a sharp increase from 129 million recorded in April 2025 and 87 million in 2023, reflecting the deepening hardship among households despite the economic reforms embarked upon by the APC federal government.
Speaking during his first NDU launch since assuming office three months ago, Verghis, in his address, commended Nigeria’s bold reforms in the exchange rate and petroleum subsidy regimes, describing them as “foundational” steps that could reshape the country’s long-term economic trajectory
Mr Verghis said “Over the last two years, Nigeria has commendably implemented bold reforms, notably around the exchange rate and the petrol subsidy. These are the foundations on which the country has the opportunity to build a programme that can transform its economic trajectory
“These results are exactly what you need to see in a stabilisation phase. These are big achievements, and many countries would envy them,”
However, The country director pointed out that “Despite these stabilization gains, many households are still struggling with eroded purchasing power. Poverty, which began to rise in 2019 due to policy missteps and external shocks such as COVID-19, has continued to increase even after the reforms. In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty,” he stated.
He further stated that “Food inflation affects everybody, particularly the poor. Persistent differences between Nigeria’s inflation rate and those of its trading partners will put pressure on the exchange rate and create a vicious cycle. Lower inflation will also allow interest rates to come down and support growth,”
Though he restated the World Bank’s committed support for the government’s reform agenda, the country Director pointed out that the challenge the government faces is ensuring that the benefits of these reforms impact positively on ordinary citizens.
He said “The challenge is clear: to translate the gains from the stabilisation reforms into better living standards for all. These are not abstract ideas but practical steps that can turn macro stability into better livelihoods,”
However in its reaction, the government disputes the poverty figures computed by the World Bank. In a lengthy post on his official X handle on Wednesday, the Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, to the president, Sunday Dare, argued that the figures put forward by the World Bank were merely “modeled” projections.
He said “While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,”
Adding that “Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities. The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunity, and laying the foundation for a fairer, more prosperous nation,”
He advised that “There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s numbers as a literal, real-time headcount”. Explaining that “The estimate is derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, a benchmark set in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms. If converted nominally, that figure equals about $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rate, well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities.
“Poverty assessment under PPP methodology uses historical consumption data (Nigeria’s last major survey was in 2018/19) and often overlooks the informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of households. The government, therefore, regards the figure as a modelled global estimate, not an empirical representation of conditions in 2025. What truly matters is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform,”
On the issue of providing safety nets to cushion the adverse impact of the government’s reforms on vulnerable citizens The government official elaborated the efforts of the administration. He said “National Social Investment Programmes: Strengthened components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and Home-Grown School Feeding to protect jobs, encourage small enterprise, and keep children in school. Food Security Initiatives: Distribution of subsidised grains and fertilisers, mechanisation partnerships, and the revival of strategic food reserves to curb inflationary pressure on staples.
“Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund: Financing critical energy, road, and housing projects to lower living costs and stimulate local employment, National Credit Guarantee Company: Expanding affordable credit to small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs through risk-sharing mechanisms with commercial banks.”
He then claimed that “Even the World Bank itself has acknowledged that these reforms are already restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” promising that “Nigerians should begin to feel more visible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,”
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